George Harris

Stocks make new highs, people start to get on the train of a bullish economy. Do you think that this is only a bubble because nobody wants to miss the train, but as soon as everybody is in the train, invested in stocks etc. there will be a main downretracement again? Do you think its a v-shape recession, like some politicians wants us to believe and we are over the bottom or it will be a W-shape recession and there will be another major downmove to come?

I will believe it when it happens. At the moment the signs are that the slump has slowed, but anything resembling a full-scale recovery is a long way away.

Unemployment (and its well-known but often ignored cousin under-employment) dominates in a lot of economies around the world, and people are not going to start spending without being in possession of a real job which looks secure. And that spending is needed to help the pick-up in the economy.

This week one of the tabloid newspapers here had a headline warning of the second stage of the recession, when things will get even worse. The tabloid press is generally not to be trusted, but this does not make people feel any more optimistic.